Section 7
Hypotheses & KPIs
The research programme is not abstract — it is a set of falsifiable hypotheses. MVO validates H1 and H2 only. H3–H6 require multi-node fabric and KYX, and are deferred to subsequent phases.
Hypotheses validated by MVO
H1 — Portability
One artifact runs across laptop / edge / cloud without code changes.
experiment: 2 workloads × 3 environments
criterion: ≥ 80% without code changes
validated by: Layer 6
H2 — Simplicity
VYR reduces operational surface compared to equivalent baseline stack.
experiment: VYR vs K8s + job runner
criterion: ≥ 50% fewer mandatory components
validated by: Layer 7
Deferred hypotheses (post-MVO)
| Hypothesis | What is verified | Requires | Phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| H3 — Partition resilience | System continues useful work during WAN split | Multi-node fabric | 6–12 mo |
| H4 — State continuity | Eventual state converges without manual repair | CRDT implementation | 6–12 mo |
| H5 — Decision quality | KYX improves outcome vs control group | KYX causal engine + history | 18–24 mo |
| H6 — Safety | Automation does not cause cascading degradation | KYX simulator + staged rollout | 18–24 mo |
MVO KPI targets
Cold start P50
<100
ms · pre-prod target
Cold start P99
<400
ms · pre-prod target
Bootstrap time
<30
min · single node
OCI fallback
>90%
success rate
Trace coverage
>80%
critical paths
Portability H1
≥80%
workloads without changes
Benchmark workload corpus (MVO subset)
Two workloads are selected for MVO. The full corpus of six classes is validated across later phases.
| Workload | Class | What it demonstrates | MVO |
|---|---|---|---|
| event transform / stream enrichment | stateless transform | portability, cold start, minimal dependencies | ✓ included |
| disconnected collector with delayed sync | offline-tolerant | ephemeral state, offline tolerance, sync on reconnect | ✓ included |
| local inference / edge scoring | compute-bound | Wasm performance, resource limits | deferred |
| multi-step automation / agent workflow runner | stateful workflow | state continuity, KYX integration | deferred |
| replicated control object / config distribution | replicated state | eventual consistency, CRDT convergence | deferred |
| failure drill / arbitrated recovery scenario | fault injection | partition resilience, H3/H6 | deferred |